[FatherCrixius]

This is why I wanted a logged curve for evade vs hit formula, that way no matter what the "actual" numbers players would build their hit and evade at you could forcibly correct it the intended balance point by weighting the log either way....

As for swa scalings in single vs multi stat scaling, that's sadly always going to be a victim of the stat diminishing return caps. It ramps up too harshly in my opinion which punishes the use of single stat scalings.

Logged curve would be far more base but very awkward to explain, and potentially even harder to balance around hit/evade buffs. (But far less snowbally)

I do not feel that is the case on your second point, on the grounds that swa gouging has historically been fine in the past even with relatively similar swa's, but in current meta GR2 you will not have the points available nor the ratios we originally had to make such sources meaningful, barring additive/math sources like claret. Matter of fact even with 100 base strength (Near 210 swa @ 100% str scaling) landing a 140% standard autohit will net you 294 damage, this 40% SWA scaling contributes only 84 damage -- Equal to 70 fire attack on a 1.2x scale. With 100 str you would have nearly double that amount of fire attack. Numerically, these auto hits are STRONGER than the physical ones, even with post-hard cap eventmin stats. The differences only become more apparent with lower SWA values.

To elaborate a bit more on what's being talked about here, here's an example that's more common than you'd think in a 1v1 scenario:

1. Someone with Riposte goes first and normally swings at their enemy, does not land critical hits.

2. Enemy's turn, they swing at the Riposte user a couple times. Riposte finally goes off and lands a critical hit.

3. However, it got that critical hit when the enemy just finished their turn, meaning the Riposte user is the last turn in this round. They're left with 1M (or 2M if they have Fleur) and usually that means ending turn.

4. Next round begins, and the enemy goes first, essentially having a "double turn" because the Riposte user had a (basically) useless turn previous round by sheer coincidence of life.
 
Thing is, this doesn't just happen with Riposte, it happens with anything that can make you gain momentum mid-fight. Sometimes people will unequip or just completely avoid things that give you momentum in that manner for the reason that it can be extremely detrimental.
 
On the other hand, being able to gain momentum mid-fight is a cool extra mechanic and entirely disabling that would just be a sad solution to that particular problem IMO. Maybe there should be a minimum momentum requirement for a turn to "count" in the round robin, so minor momentum gains like that don't suddenly get you killed? I'm not sure, but that's not the main point of this highly informative thread, so I won't go further with that train of thought.

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I'm still of the opinion that the current game state is too polarizing to the point it's not fun. My problem with the SKI tax is not "I can't disregard hit entirely and still do good damage to everybody", it's "I need high hit for my character to have any meaningful impact in a fight". It's a huge part of why I preferred the idea of autohits not being generally full-dodgeable, because then you could just make Evasion! a high damage reduction against autohits while potentially still having it ignore status effect inflictions. At least then the person with low hit rate is at disadvantage but not entirely useless in the battle, and not feeling -obligated- to be stacking hit rate.
 
Because as it stands, the game makes you feel forced to get as much hit as possible by penalizing you for not doing it in a manner that's not so much "fair" as "too harsh" if that makes sense. This means that there's less incentive to go out and try other setups that could be more thematic or, I guess, "more original" for your character, and there's more encouragement for doing cookie-cutter meta. The bread and butter setups, because they're the ones that are considered to "work".
 
And generally the builds that are considered to "work" in people's eyes (to my knowledge) are the ones that can have at least some meaningful impact in a fight, some kind of usefulness, rather than being doomed to missing every hit and not contributing anything whatsoever to the battle or even the roleplay itself.
 
So I still think we should go back to having a damage reduction for "dodging" autohits, but making it fairly high (i.e 45% or so) and keeping the ability to dodge status inflictions. The second part alone, in addition to still being able to fully dodge basic attacks would still give Evade its own identity rather than just being alternate tanking, because after all tanking doesn't just let you "dodge" a game-changer poison when you get lucky (obviously not accounting for builds that stack up status resist.) 
   

TL;DR

I think the penalty for not building enough hit rate is too harsh to the point it gets very polarizing and makes you barely able to contribute meaningful things to a fight or even in the roleplay of it in some cases. I believe evade should go back to being a damage reduction (preferably somewhere around 40-45%) against autohits while keeping the ability to dodge statuses, which will help it keep a different identity from just normal tanking. Glancing Blows is a system that sounds cool on paper, but in practice skewers things too much in one side's favor and in a way that detracts from the general fun of the game, since you'll see people doing the same things over and over to -really- try and avoid the part of it that's considered very unfun.
 
But that's just my opinion/two cents. I'll take anything else at this point! I appreciate all the work into showing the math behind things, it helps put a more 'objective' and informative look on things!

Fern

Muy Bien, thank you for doing the full explanation on how double turning functions like that, it was something I probably should've gone into further detail on but didn't want to drag out an already long and mechanic heavy post -- Especially with something people complain about so frequently.

One of the things I was worried about when making a post critiquing GR2 evasion in some ways was that I do not make basic hit builds. Those classes have never been fun for me, and so most of the points I could make felt tilted by my own perspective on the mechanic, the inclusion of goose patented spreadsheets™️ was more to display it's functionality as an alternate tank stat, it's cost effectiveness and how hard you are punished for being just 20 hit below a viable build, which is typically one class passive hitbuff plus a few. It was also to display polarisation of effective DR to hit's dodged -- In that evading! an attack is rare but numerically functional as DR, so even with a 50% + Effective DR you are still more likely to be hit than to evade the attack outright, leading to the misconception that the stat is underperforming. (40 % to hit, 36% to dodge, 24% to glance) I have not fully formulated a sentiment for or against the system currently, but I see it's weaknesses and hope it would be improved before other things are tried.

The issue GR1 Had regarding increased evasion DR (From 30) was that cel was a relatively cheap stat to hit the bare minimum of evade on, evasion being calculated linearly caused dodge-tanks and stat-walls in general to outmath the other guy were they not to build hit, and usually beat basic hit builds by virtue of superior numbers (IE, mage.) and I believe this would still be the case now. If people no longer need to pay the Ski tax, I think a lot would need to change, the issue would be of classes being too strong rather than some anemic kensei being too damage resistant if that makes sense.

Alright, since I have a lot of my own opinions and such on the subject matter here as someone who spends an unhealthy amount toying with this game's systems, I'll go in order based on the original post's main points. Just remember these are opinions, as is every discussion on this sensitive topic, as mine might differ from yours.

Evade Viability 

The numbers being as skewed as they are is my primary reason overall for my distaste for the new evade system. Outside numbers retuning on existing hit/evade buffs, very little has been done to the classes in a way to balance out the hit/evade race. While even back in GR1 people gravitated towards certain classes for whatever was meta at the time, GR2 has been something more of an extreme case. This is due to how the Hit/Eva imbalance allows properly supported kits such as FB, BK, and Bonder to name a few the ability to have more free-form stats, SKI not being as important. I like to personally dub these classes "Hit" classes, or classes that provide the proper hit support needed to function in such a system comfortably whether that be hit numbers, or evasion ignores.

Zerg (chad) P1

100%. 

As stated in the topic post, this creates a system where a large majority of classes can do nothing but roll (often rigged) dice, there's not much interaction going on here. The wild variance in these values also create a game that quickly spirals into a completely one sided matchup, in the fully buffed dodgy's favor if the opponent has sub-240 hit, or in the attacker's advantage if they have 250 hit or more. Speaking of that, the numbers presented in the table assume FULL EVADE BUFFS, and even then, you're never reaching more than 215-220 evade with just buffs alone, you need debuffs to go past that (and there's even less support for that in this game currently). Meanwhile, most hit buffs are PASSIVE, meaning there's no real momentum upkeep cost. Flatfoot is a 0-1m application, blessed/bloodhunt are free, class hit passives are free, etc. Most evade buffs however are a 3 momentum investment in most cases for a 3-5 turn buff typically. Other evade buffs such as Miragewalk and Unarmored Prowess can be applied passively, but only last a single attack or require select classes or circumstances to be used.

What this means is that a dodge build will always face a momentum tax in order to "play the game", and even at that highest potential, they still lose to a hit stacker (Which is just about everyone in the current meta). This along with the sheer investment needed in CEL in the first place makes it very limiting to build for. Using the above numbers, let's assume a fully buffed dodge averages 210 evade, and the average attacker is using 250 hit. This nets roughly a 50% net DR according to the math, which seems fine at a glance (pun totally intended), but in practice results in a net loss for the dodge build as they have to often spend 3-6 momentum every 5 turns to keep that up vs the passive nature of that 250 hit. In many build experiments I've done over the past few months to get a taste for these numbers in practice, the amount of investment needed is often straight up not worth building over DEF/RES in many cases (For PvP).  []

P2

One thing I didn't cover was the 'ease of buff' privilege some classes get versus others. Priority one is hitting your +50, I do this through hunters wind to proc Windswept -> Chaos Reflex -> Feather of Mercury for +48 in 3 momentum. Other classes like Rogue end up with several 2 - 3m skills they need to use and upkeep in order to not be made of paper, whereas one bash from a BK or proc of a stalemate will counteract 3M of the dodge's buffs. The upper limit on a regular setup is around 210, 215 if rogue main class and hardcapped, and as you said that's where the hit debuffs come in. Fear / Locking guard / Ken passives are all additive here, but do not reach the evasion cap, allowing for some disgusting stacking. I do not feel this is an issue of viability but most evasion buffs are straight up bad, and the class pool of viability is like you said incredibly niche.

I do not feel cel is expensive as a stat, however. Being able to maintain 40 or less hit rewards more DR and the oppertunity to glance than Cel split into defence or res respectively, of course without the blessings of our lord and saviour Armour. In my own pvp experience, the biggest counter is me mispositioning and getting hanging'd onto or being foolish enough to be hit by a bash. I believe it is stronger than meets the eye, but some sources such as flatfoot are very overtuned in the new system, and many evasion buffs need to be functionally useful. 
My initial suggestion was to lower both the hit and evade cap to 25 or 30, reduce some of the sources so that it'd only take 1 -2 evasion or hit buffs to reach, and increase base weapon accuracy by ten-- accomodating the loss of the glance check. It seems incredibly dumb to me that evasion is suffering BEFORE the hitcheck.

Before I get lynched for saying this, hear me out:

Dodge in its current incarnation is simply a "stat check" in a sense that it just effectively automatically wins against setups unable to reach the hit numbers needed to win, or have adequate amounts of evasion ignores to deal with it. It's a concept I've seen in other games as a "win more" stat in the sense it only really enables you to bully builds that would have been likely ill prepared to deal with you in the first case. The major exception to this trend is Youkai, who bully tank setups quite heavily due to the sheer momentum advantage summoners hold. I cite this very momentum economy as to why dodge feels so miserable to play, you lose a lot of momentum and stat investment for something that often straight up doesn't matter in many matchups. A well stacked armor tank (it's own issue of balance) matches or outperforms on the DR front in nearly every normal situation using the average 250 hit this meta sees, as no dodge will ever get above 215 evade without niche shenanigans. This is further a issue when CEL requires nearly the same investment as a DEF/RES user stat-wise (If not more!) in order to have a DR. Evade is unreliable to the point where running absolutely no DR option results in oftentimes superior results, as at least you can then try your hand at completely winning the damage race instead of hoping your evade gamble pays off in a system rigged against it. 


TLDR: Current class balance is ill suited for this kind of system, leading to both dodge players to be upset at how their choice of DR is largely meaningless much of the time, and for everyone else because dodge if not kept in check is so utterly broken that you HAVE to play the hit/evade game, ruining build diversity as a whole.

WIN MORE is a very apt way of describing it's current function. It feels like this is a result of one; The numerical difference in hit / evasion being a very small percentage of the total amount (Subtractive) and Two; that evasion does a lot more than just reduce damage. It suffers from being capable of too much, Nullifying youkai, Glancing inflicts what have you, and in a system where nobody wants to do 0 damage the natural consequence is to be in an investment race that is ultimately decided by stacked RNG in one persons favour. It will never feel good. 

Again, I have hard summoner privilege and have to deal with like 1/3 of the weaknesses evasion has, but I fear that buffing evasion across the board only makes the abuse cases stronger. Numerically it's mostly fine I feel, barring a few evasion debuffs, but many sources of evasion suck balls and should be made usable.

Not too much to say on the rest of your post as I agree with just about everything, but I did forget to bring up luck and this has pissed me off greatly.